17.5

Seems like the past few weeks in Penn State football were represented by symbolic numbers. Against Michigan, it was 31, the number of yards Royster needed to capture the record as Penn State's all-time leading rusher. The week after against Northwestern it was 400, which represented a possibility for JoePa to get his 400th career victory as a head coach. This week, it is 17.5, which represents the spread for the game this weekend against Ohio State, and yes the Buckeyes are the favorite.

What this basically means is that no one in the country cares about our three game winning streak, no one else is impressed with Matt McGloin's emergence at the QB position, and no one is giving us a shot in this game against Ohio State. The truth is, why should they give us a chance? In our two previous games against top 25 teams on the road we managed to only score a combined 6 points, while surrendering 48 (both games ended with a final of 24-3). Also, the past three games that we played were games we should have won regardless of our record, but people lost sight with the early season struggles and all. They think that it was by some miracle (McGloin) that we won these games, but the truth is that this Penn State team was better than those three teams, by a large margin as well.

The truth comes out, the real experts of college football have ruled and placed the line at 17.5 in Ohio State's favor. At first, I was outraged because it is just simply ridiculous that we are considered underdogs by such a large margin. After all, we have been pretty much scoring at will the past few weeks and boy has it felt great, but then I thought to myself, that this is great for the program. These players have been gaining confidence and finding a sense of belonging (which is what I want). They now believe that they can compete with any team in the country, on any given day (which they should). Once this team gets on a roll and gets this sense of entitlement, they sometimes seem to forget how they got there, and 17.5 is just a reminder to these guys that they need to continue to work hard, week in, week out and continue to execute. You don't just earn your place from a hot streak, you earn it with consistency.

17.5 does a little more then just act as a reminder, it works in our favor in two ways. The first of which is motivation, if I was a player on this team (which in my mind, I consider myself as a member of this team) I would be ticked off to the next level. This is not just an analytical number that pops out of a computer to pop out a prediction, this is disrespect to the next level. These are people that get together and decide that Penn State has no shot in the world to beat this team, they have been written off before the game has even started. These experts are basically telling the team that there is no use in playing the game, stay home because it doesn't even matter if you show up, you do not stand a chance. The best part is that every single player on this Penn State team has heard it. They now know that they don't belong just yet, they know that they have to continue to earn it, but the best part is that now they will play with a chip on their shoulder instead of talking about playing with a chip on their shoulder.

The second of wondrous ways this number works is against Ohio State because the Buckeyes know the spread as well. They know how Penn State fared against the likes of Iowa and Alabama (even Illinois), and they know that they are in "another league" when it comes to playing Penn State this year. They also know that the Big Ten is a four horse race this year and they have to beat Iowa next week to stay in contention. They have had two weeks to think about this, especially with the bye week, with all that free time to relax, heal up, and work on shoring up that defense to get ready for November football. With the media involved in all of this and the tendency for Jim Tressel coached teams to have mental lapses after bye weeks (2-4 in games after the bye week over the last six years), this could very well work out to be a trap game for the Buckeyes.

Does this mean that Penn State will win the game against the Buckeyes? No, but it does mean that the spread is actually working in their favor. The truth is that this team will need to come out and punch Ohio State in the mouth to win this game, they cannot come out flat like they were earlier in the season. Am I going to break down the match-ups, no, because Ohio State has the advantage in every single one, which is why the spread is so high. But Penn State does have a chance to win this, they just need to get the ball in their play-makers (Redd, Smith, Moye, Royster, etc) hands in open space, limit turnovers, and play with fire from start to finish. Whether we win or lose tonight, this is the game that will launch Penn State in the right direction. If they win (or lose close), they have finally found a formula that works for them, an identity (a classic blue-collar work ethic), and can continue to establish this foundation with their youthful roster. If they lose, it'll be a reminder that they got too high on themselves and they'll know what they need to do to continue to get better, that perfection in football comes with attitude and consistency. No matter what, 17.5 will be what gets this program on the right track.

Final Score Prediction
Ohio State 21 -- 17 Penn State

WE ARE........................