Outback Bowl here we come. I know that I'm being a little presumptive on where we are going to be playing come January (that's right, I said January), but there is a reason for my madness. At the beginning of this year, no one would have expected the Big Ten to finish with a three way tie, more-so with that three way tie including Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State. This was suppose to be the year of the show down between Iowa and Ohio State, but with Iowa finishing with a 7-5 record, that has long since been history.
Taking a closer look at bowl match-ups, the top three of the Big Ten picture become a little more clear after the most recent BCS standings. Since there is a three way tie at the top of the Big Ten, the BCS rankings serve as the tie breaker, leaving the top ranked team with the automatic BCS bid for the Big Ten. So from the looks of the most recent standings, Wisconsin looks bound for the Rose Bowl (barring any major upsets, an outside shot at the National Title Game) and Ohio State seems ready to lock up an at-large bid for one of the remaining BCS Bowls, most likely the Sugar or the Fiesta. If that scenario plays out, that would leave Michigan State as the clear cut favorite to face Alabama (not LSU because they will enjoying the confines of Cowboys stadium and the Cotton Bowl) in the Capital One Bowl. Now that we've got that out of the way, we can start focusing on the logjam of contention for the Outback Bowl.
I know a lot of you have been reading the tie-ins and bowl predictions for all of the bowl games recently, and most of them say the Outback Bowl goes to the 3rd place team in the Big Ten. Keeping that in mind, there is a three way tie for first in the Big Ten, which coincidentally has left a three way tie for fourth. Considering we're losing two teams to the BCS, and MSU to the Capital One Bowl, consider it a three way tie for third, and the representative that is going to be playing in the Outback Bowl on January 1st, 2011.
Now that three way tie consists of Penn State, Iowa, and Illinois, which leaves the Outback bowl committee to pick between us, the Hawkeyes, and the Illini. There is a reason why I mentioned the teams twice, because the major focus on this three way tie is a committee, not an installed tie-breaker that can separate these teams that would automatically send one of these teams to the Outback Bowl. This committee basically gets to choose who they want, and their criteria is sometimes weighted by win and losses, but in this situation none of that matters, since all three have identical Big Ten records.
So the first tiebreaker for the committee is going to be which one of these teams is going to create the most revenue. What this breaks down too, is which team has a better traveling fan base, which team's alumni are going to come to the game and make them some money. With that in mind, Iowa played in the Orange Bowl last year, and they were very well represented in Florida (Outback Bowl is played in Tampa) in terms of fan base, Illinois does not have a proven track record of a traveling fan base, and Penn State is by and far the most reputable program out of these three in showing up for road games. Based on that alone, the Outback Bowl committee has already limited their choices between the Nittany Lions and the Hawkeyes.
Now you are thinking to yourself that the Hawkeyes have the advantage because they beat the Nittany Lions in head to head competition this year, but the truth is that none of that matters to the committee. Their next criteria that they are going to use to pick a team for this game is how they played down the final stretch of the season. Based on this they are going to determine which team would be a more exciting draw for fans to come out and watch (basically use this as an excuse to pick who they really want, the team that is going to make them the most money). Politically speaking they are going to compare the records of Penn State and Iowa during their last six games of the season, and more closely examine how they ended the season. As for Iowa, they went 2-4 (almost 1-5 is Belcher didn't drop that last second TD grab for Indiana) down the stretch with a season ending loss to the worst team in the Big Ten in Minnesota. Penn State on the other hand, went 4-2, with those two losses coming against two teams ranked in the top ten of the BCS standings, including a close match-up against Michigan State.
Basically what I'm saying is that nobody wants to go watch and Iowa team that just lost to Minnesota to end off the season, while Penn State fans will always want to go watch their team no matter who they are facing. The Lions will also get a little more grace considering the fact that they had the toughest schedule in the nation this year. But all reasoning and theories aside, the Nittany
WE ARE..................
Monday, November 29, 2010
Saturday, November 27, 2010
Remember the Spartans
As the snow flakes fell to the ground in Happy Valley today, along with cheers coming from the visitor's section of the stadium, Penn State's rebuilding year came to a close. Another week of heartbreak and disappointment that put an exclamation point on this up and down season for Penn State. Let's go ahead and recap today's game and begin to wrap up the regular season as we start getting ready for Bowl season to start. Since I'm feeling a little pessimistic today, I'm going to go ahead and start with the ugly.
The Ugly:
I know that I'm going to take a lot of flack for this, but the ugly was most definitely the quarterback play today in Beaver Stadium. I know all you fans that are blinded by the improbable stat line of McGloin's 312 (23/42 52% completion rate = ugly) passing yards are going to give me flack for this, but I really don't care. The truth is that I would hope that if you throw the ball at least 42 times during the game, especially with an offense that only averages 64 plays a game, I would hope you would throw for at least 300 yards. If you want to argue with me, go ahead and re-watch the game, Michigan State's secondary dropped 6 would be interceptions, and that is not an exaggeration. If this guy didn't have the luck of the Irish, his last TD would've never happened either since MSU's defensive back fumbled his interception within the red zone on the four yard line, giving McGloin one more shot at the end zone.
The Bad:
The team was definitely sleeping the entire game until the fourth quarter. I don't understand how the coaches are having such a hard time getting these guys ready for the game, but you could also make the argument that MSU let up a little bit in the fourth quarter which led to the mini-revival that just fell short. Either way, the only guys that had a nonstop motor the entire game have to be given credit, and those guys are Nate Stupar, Evan Royster, and Stefen Wisniewski. These guys were playing mad the whole game and I loved watching Stoops flying all over the field on the defensive side of the ball, the guy was everywhere.
The Bad Continued:
We're losing some quality guys off of the field this year, especially with the losses of guys like Wisniewski, Royster, Brackett, Ogbu, etc. I just wanted to go ahead and take a second and thank these guys for the last four/five years of football that they have played for us. They laid it on the line for us week in and week out, and for that, on behalf of the Nittany Lions faithful I want to thank you for all of the great memories that you provided for us. Good luck with your future endeavors and I'm sure you will continue to make us proud.
The Good:
There is some great news that comes out of this. We finished the season on a little bit of a positive note. Even though we lost to Michigan State, we have definitely developed some chemistry on this team as the season has gone on. We have some guys that have been stepping up and developing an identity, especially with guys like Mauti, Stupar, Redd, Willis, and Justin Brown. These guys are stepping up and showing us that the future is most definitely bright, they have played well during the latter stages of the season, and I'm definitely excited to see how they impact this team during Bowl Season. Couple that with some time to heal for this Penn State squad, and our bowl game will be the statement game before we start talking about Spring practice. On another note, the worst possible bowl game for us to go to (especially since most of the fans packed it in after the Illinois game) is going to be the Outback Bowl. Yes, at 7-5 we will most likely be playing in Tampa thanks to the fact that the Big Ten has three 11-1 teams ranked in the top ten of the BCS Standings. Wisconsin will most likely go to the Rose Bowl (barring any upsets next week, they have an outside shot of backing into the National Title Game, but I doubt it), and Ohio State will get the at-large. Leaving Sparty to the Capital One Bowl, and PSU to the Outback Bowl. Tampa here we come.
WE ARE.....................
The Ugly:
I know that I'm going to take a lot of flack for this, but the ugly was most definitely the quarterback play today in Beaver Stadium. I know all you fans that are blinded by the improbable stat line of McGloin's 312 (23/42 52% completion rate = ugly) passing yards are going to give me flack for this, but I really don't care. The truth is that I would hope that if you throw the ball at least 42 times during the game, especially with an offense that only averages 64 plays a game, I would hope you would throw for at least 300 yards. If you want to argue with me, go ahead and re-watch the game, Michigan State's secondary dropped 6 would be interceptions, and that is not an exaggeration. If this guy didn't have the luck of the Irish, his last TD would've never happened either since MSU's defensive back fumbled his interception within the red zone on the four yard line, giving McGloin one more shot at the end zone.
The Bad:
The team was definitely sleeping the entire game until the fourth quarter. I don't understand how the coaches are having such a hard time getting these guys ready for the game, but you could also make the argument that MSU let up a little bit in the fourth quarter which led to the mini-revival that just fell short. Either way, the only guys that had a nonstop motor the entire game have to be given credit, and those guys are Nate Stupar, Evan Royster, and Stefen Wisniewski. These guys were playing mad the whole game and I loved watching Stoops flying all over the field on the defensive side of the ball, the guy was everywhere.
The Bad Continued:
We're losing some quality guys off of the field this year, especially with the losses of guys like Wisniewski, Royster, Brackett, Ogbu, etc. I just wanted to go ahead and take a second and thank these guys for the last four/five years of football that they have played for us. They laid it on the line for us week in and week out, and for that, on behalf of the Nittany Lions faithful I want to thank you for all of the great memories that you provided for us. Good luck with your future endeavors and I'm sure you will continue to make us proud.
The Good:
There is some great news that comes out of this. We finished the season on a little bit of a positive note. Even though we lost to Michigan State, we have definitely developed some chemistry on this team as the season has gone on. We have some guys that have been stepping up and developing an identity, especially with guys like Mauti, Stupar, Redd, Willis, and Justin Brown. These guys are stepping up and showing us that the future is most definitely bright, they have played well during the latter stages of the season, and I'm definitely excited to see how they impact this team during Bowl Season. Couple that with some time to heal for this Penn State squad, and our bowl game will be the statement game before we start talking about Spring practice. On another note, the worst possible bowl game for us to go to (especially since most of the fans packed it in after the Illinois game) is going to be the Outback Bowl. Yes, at 7-5 we will most likely be playing in Tampa thanks to the fact that the Big Ten has three 11-1 teams ranked in the top ten of the BCS Standings. Wisconsin will most likely go to the Rose Bowl (barring any upsets next week, they have an outside shot of backing into the National Title Game, but I doubt it), and Ohio State will get the at-large. Leaving Sparty to the Capital One Bowl, and PSU to the Outback Bowl. Tampa here we come.
WE ARE.....................
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
The Best Coach in the Big Ten
The Best Coach in the Big Ten
In recent days, I have found myself spending free moments watching old TED Conference presentations on Youtube. I found myself in such a place yesterday, watching Barry Schwartz explain why expanded choice leads not to greater freedom, but shockingly less. He explained that choice allows us to get better things but we feel worse about them, because we wonder if another option would have made a more positive impact. We expect perfection, and therefore our inflated expectations increase the opportunity cost of any alternative to the point that any choice will leave us unsatisfied. In such a world, perhaps the only thing that can make us happy is delaying choices altogether.
While my introduction is more of a digression that I found interesting rather than a proper introduction, I do believe that inflated expectations cause us to despise any choice we make and immediately decide to pursue any or every other option. Inflated expectations can cause fans of a premiere college football program to call for the firing of the greatest coach in the history of college football, during every year in which a top 20 finish is unlikely. We are an anxious people, especially those of us who are members of the self-described “lost generation.” We want the best and we want it now. If Chris Peterson can win every game at Boise State, we should bring him on over to Penn State, because Joe Paterno is always losing between two and five.
Indeed, between 2002 and 2008, Joe Paterno’s record with Penn State ranks fifth in the Big Ten. He won fifty-six of eighty-seven games for a winning percentage of 64.4%, placing the Lions behind Ohio State (84.4%), Wisconsin (68.9%), and Iowa and Michigan (both 67%). Indeed, Lloyd Carr’s winning percentage from 2002-2007 was vastly superior to Paterno’s, and he was dismissed very publicly for his failure to win enough football games. Penn State’s record during the seven years in the middle of the aughts was only better than Purdue (54.5%), Minnesota (52.3%), Michigan State (48.8%), Northwestern (47.7%), and Illinois and Indiana (both 32.5%). If coaching is judged solely on the basis of wins and losses, it seems that the old coach is losing his touch, dipping into the dreaded second tier of the Big Ten.
But, Robert Inchausti says that teaching is a profession of the sublime, and indeed college coaching is more of a sublime art than a scale in which very light wins are to tip the balance away from the heavy losses. Every choice is accompanied by the inevitable what-if? What if Penn State had fired Joe in 2004 after just seven wins in two years? What if he had left after 2005? Would Penn State have won a National Championship by now? Frankly, if it were up to my rash friends and I, Joe would have been gone years ago. I wrote as much in a much maligned email sent in September 2005. Fortunately the choice did not belong to my “lost generation.” Joe Paterno has stayed, and I can say that between 2002 and 2008, he was without question the best coach in the Big Ten.
How I Came to that Conclusion
To begin with, only three schools maintained the same coach from 2002 to 2008, Ohio State, Penn State and Iowa. We soon see the cream rise to the crop with Coaches Tressel, Paterno and Ferentz. Lloyd Carr would easily be among these three, had the Michigan decision makers understood that making a choice just because we feel like something is a bad fit at the moment does not make us feel more liberated, but less so. Ask any Michigan fan if they still wish that Carr was fired in 2007, only the crazy ones will say yes. (Then again, I’m still glad Donovan McNabb is out of Philly, and his stats tell me he was the greatest QB in the history of the organization. All things are contradictory in some ways I suppose. But still the NFL is different from college. At least that’s how I rationalize this apparent contradiction.)
College football is different because of that first word, college. Let’s not forget or be quick to forget that college is what is most important to the young men who go to these programs. Brad Banks won the Davey O’Brien award in 2002 for best Quarterback in College. Have you ever heard of him? Well, he does lead the offense of a professional football team, and they play in an arena, on a fifty-yard field in Orlando. The point is that graduating your players, even the supposed superstars, is the most important thing a coach can do, and if he wins a few championships too, that’s great.
The incoming classes from 1998 to 2003 made up the bulk of all of the teams from 2002 to 2008. Of the students who came to Penn State to play football between 1998 and 2003, more than 81% graduated. Penn State’s graduation rate in that time period was second in the Big Ten to Northwestern who graduated an astonishing 92.67%. Indeed, I think that the measure of a great coach is the sum of his graduation rate and his winning percentage. Tressell certainly has Ohio State on the right track, and you cannot blame him for the low graduation rates the first few years he was in Columbus, but the Buckeyes graduated only 56.5% of its players who came to the school between 1998 and 2003. The Hawkeyes, on the other hand graduated 70.67% of its players. Still, no coach can compare with Paterno’s winning and his graduation rate. Perhaps we need to take another moment to consider the impact of his accomplishments.
Paterno’s worst incoming class from 1998 to 2003 graduated 76% of its players. That number is higher than the average of 9 other Big Ten Schools in that same time span, and higher than the highest graduation rate in that time span of six other Big Ten Schools. Consider this, only five schools in the Big Ten won more than 60% of their games from 2002-2008 (mentioned above), with one clear outlier being Ohio State who won more than 80%. That means that Penn State was one of the elite teams in the Big Ten over that stretch. With those same players, only five schools graduated more than 70%, (Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Penn State and Northwestern), with Northwestern as a clear outlier. Iowa, Penn State and Michigan are the only teams who ranked in the top five in both categories, and Penn State’s winning percentage is nominally lower than Michigan and Iowa (3%), while their graduation rate is significantly higher (10%). You can see the statistics below, and I won’t belabor the point.
Being a good coach is all about balancing the scale of light wins and heavy losses. Being a great coach is a sublime art, and I hope that it is not a lost one. As I began with thoughts from one of my recent favorite scholars, let me end with the same. This one is from Tamba Hali, he writes:
“To be honest with you, Penn State was my worst visit. I was pretty much bored. But I liked it here because I wasn’t coming here to party. I was really coming to go to school and play football. [Coach Paterno] had a plan for every player, to put in their minds that they wanted to come here and get an education, go to classes, be a good citizen and abide by all the rules he established.”
So, please let not the choices we make limit our liberty. Let us be proud of the old coach, and honor what he’s accomplished. Thanks Joe, for everything!
Statistics:
Big 10: Incoming Classes 1998-2003
Football Graduating Classes 2003- 2008
Team | Average GSR | Low GSR | High GSR |
Illinois | 71.333333% | 67% (1999) | 76% (2003) |
Indiana | 69.833333% | 67% (2000 and 2) | 77% (1999) |
Iowa | 70.666666% | 58% (1998) | 79% (2003) |
Michigan State | 48.5% | 41% (1998) | 56% (2003) |
Michigan | 70.833333% | 68% (1998) | 73% (2000) |
Minnesota | 49.166666% | 41% (1998) | 56% (2003) |
Northwestern | 92.666666% | 91% (1999) | 95% (2003) |
Ohio State | 56.5% | 52% (2001) | 63% (2003) |
Penn State | 81.166666% | 76% (2000) | 85% (2002) |
Purdue | 65% | 70% (1998 and 2000) | 59% (2002) |
Wisconsin | 63.833333% | 67% (1998) | 61% (2000) |
Big Ten Records 2002-8
School | Record (’02-’08) | Best Record | Worst Record |
Illinois | 27 – 56 (32.5) | 9-4 (2007) | 1 -11 (2003) |
Indiana | 27 – 56 (32.5) | 7-6 (2007) | 2-10 (2003) |
Iowa | 59 – 29 (67%) | 11-2 (2002 and 9) | 6-7 (2006) |
Michigan State | 42 – 44 (48.8) | 9-4 (2008) | 4-8 (2002 and 6) |
Michigan | 59 – 29 (67) | 11-2 (2006) | 3-9 (2008) |
Minnesota | 46 – 42 (52.3) | 10-3 (2003) | 1-11 (2007) |
Northwestern | 41 – 45 (47.7) | 9-4 (2008) | 3-9 (2002) |
Ohio State | 76 – 14 (84.4) | 14-0 (2002) | 8-4 (2004) |
Penn State | 56 – 31 (64.4) | 11-1 (2005) | 3-9 (2003) |
Purdue | 48 – 40 (54.5) | 9-4 (2003) | 4-8 (2008) |
Wisconsin | 62 – 28 (68.9) | 12-1 (2006) | 7-6 (2003 and 8) |
GSR= Graduation Success Rate
Saturday, November 13, 2010
17.5
Seems like the past few weeks in Penn State football were represented by symbolic numbers. Against Michigan, it was 31, the number of yards Royster needed to capture the record as Penn State's all-time leading rusher. The week after against Northwestern it was 400, which represented a possibility for JoePa to get his 400th career victory as a head coach. This week, it is 17.5, which represents the spread for the game this weekend against Ohio State, and yes the Buckeyes are the favorite.
What this basically means is that no one in the country cares about our three game winning streak, no one else is impressed with Matt McGloin's emergence at the QB position, and no one is giving us a shot in this game against Ohio State. The truth is, why should they give us a chance? In our two previous games against top 25 teams on the road we managed to only score a combined 6 points, while surrendering 48 (both games ended with a final of 24-3). Also, the past three games that we played were games we should have won regardless of our record, but people lost sight with the early season struggles and all. They think that it was by some miracle (McGloin) that we won these games, but the truth is that this Penn State team was better than those three teams, by a large margin as well.
The truth comes out, the real experts of college football have ruled and placed the line at 17.5 in Ohio State's favor. At first, I was outraged because it is just simply ridiculous that we are considered underdogs by such a large margin. After all, we have been pretty much scoring at will the past few weeks and boy has it felt great, but then I thought to myself, that this is great for the program. These players have been gaining confidence and finding a sense of belonging (which is what I want). They now believe that they can compete with any team in the country, on any given day (which they should). Once this team gets on a roll and gets this sense of entitlement, they sometimes seem to forget how they got there, and 17.5 is just a reminder to these guys that they need to continue to work hard, week in, week out and continue to execute. You don't just earn your place from a hot streak, you earn it with consistency.
17.5 does a little more then just act as a reminder, it works in our favor in two ways. The first of which is motivation, if I was a player on this team (which in my mind, I consider myself as a member of this team) I would be ticked off to the next level. This is not just an analytical number that pops out of a computer to pop out a prediction, this is disrespect to the next level. These are people that get together and decide that Penn State has no shot in the world to beat this team, they have been written off before the game has even started. These experts are basically telling the team that there is no use in playing the game, stay home because it doesn't even matter if you show up, you do not stand a chance. The best part is that every single player on this Penn State team has heard it. They now know that they don't belong just yet, they know that they have to continue to earn it, but the best part is that now they will play with a chip on their shoulder instead of talking about playing with a chip on their shoulder.
The second of wondrous ways this number works is against Ohio State because the Buckeyes know the spread as well. They know how Penn State fared against the likes of Iowa and Alabama (even Illinois), and they know that they are in "another league" when it comes to playing Penn State this year. They also know that the Big Ten is a four horse race this year and they have to beat Iowa next week to stay in contention. They have had two weeks to think about this, especially with the bye week, with all that free time to relax, heal up, and work on shoring up that defense to get ready for November football. With the media involved in all of this and the tendency for Jim Tressel coached teams to have mental lapses after bye weeks (2-4 in games after the bye week over the last six years), this could very well work out to be a trap game for the Buckeyes.
Does this mean that Penn State will win the game against the Buckeyes? No, but it does mean that the spread is actually working in their favor. The truth is that this team will need to come out and punch Ohio State in the mouth to win this game, they cannot come out flat like they were earlier in the season. Am I going to break down the match-ups, no, because Ohio State has the advantage in every single one, which is why the spread is so high. But Penn State does have a chance to win this, they just need to get the ball in their play-makers (Redd, Smith, Moye, Royster, etc) hands in open space, limit turnovers, and play with fire from start to finish. Whether we win or lose tonight, this is the game that will launch Penn State in the right direction. If they win (or lose close), they have finally found a formula that works for them, an identity (a classic blue-collar work ethic), and can continue to establish this foundation with their youthful roster. If they lose, it'll be a reminder that they got too high on themselves and they'll know what they need to do to continue to get better, that perfection in football comes with attitude and consistency. No matter what, 17.5 will be what gets this program on the right track.
Final Score Prediction
Ohio State 21 -- 17 Penn State
WE ARE........................
What this basically means is that no one in the country cares about our three game winning streak, no one else is impressed with Matt McGloin's emergence at the QB position, and no one is giving us a shot in this game against Ohio State. The truth is, why should they give us a chance? In our two previous games against top 25 teams on the road we managed to only score a combined 6 points, while surrendering 48 (both games ended with a final of 24-3). Also, the past three games that we played were games we should have won regardless of our record, but people lost sight with the early season struggles and all. They think that it was by some miracle (McGloin) that we won these games, but the truth is that this Penn State team was better than those three teams, by a large margin as well.
The truth comes out, the real experts of college football have ruled and placed the line at 17.5 in Ohio State's favor. At first, I was outraged because it is just simply ridiculous that we are considered underdogs by such a large margin. After all, we have been pretty much scoring at will the past few weeks and boy has it felt great, but then I thought to myself, that this is great for the program. These players have been gaining confidence and finding a sense of belonging (which is what I want). They now believe that they can compete with any team in the country, on any given day (which they should). Once this team gets on a roll and gets this sense of entitlement, they sometimes seem to forget how they got there, and 17.5 is just a reminder to these guys that they need to continue to work hard, week in, week out and continue to execute. You don't just earn your place from a hot streak, you earn it with consistency.
17.5 does a little more then just act as a reminder, it works in our favor in two ways. The first of which is motivation, if I was a player on this team (which in my mind, I consider myself as a member of this team) I would be ticked off to the next level. This is not just an analytical number that pops out of a computer to pop out a prediction, this is disrespect to the next level. These are people that get together and decide that Penn State has no shot in the world to beat this team, they have been written off before the game has even started. These experts are basically telling the team that there is no use in playing the game, stay home because it doesn't even matter if you show up, you do not stand a chance. The best part is that every single player on this Penn State team has heard it. They now know that they don't belong just yet, they know that they have to continue to earn it, but the best part is that now they will play with a chip on their shoulder instead of talking about playing with a chip on their shoulder.
The second of wondrous ways this number works is against Ohio State because the Buckeyes know the spread as well. They know how Penn State fared against the likes of Iowa and Alabama (even Illinois), and they know that they are in "another league" when it comes to playing Penn State this year. They also know that the Big Ten is a four horse race this year and they have to beat Iowa next week to stay in contention. They have had two weeks to think about this, especially with the bye week, with all that free time to relax, heal up, and work on shoring up that defense to get ready for November football. With the media involved in all of this and the tendency for Jim Tressel coached teams to have mental lapses after bye weeks (2-4 in games after the bye week over the last six years), this could very well work out to be a trap game for the Buckeyes.
Does this mean that Penn State will win the game against the Buckeyes? No, but it does mean that the spread is actually working in their favor. The truth is that this team will need to come out and punch Ohio State in the mouth to win this game, they cannot come out flat like they were earlier in the season. Am I going to break down the match-ups, no, because Ohio State has the advantage in every single one, which is why the spread is so high. But Penn State does have a chance to win this, they just need to get the ball in their play-makers (Redd, Smith, Moye, Royster, etc) hands in open space, limit turnovers, and play with fire from start to finish. Whether we win or lose tonight, this is the game that will launch Penn State in the right direction. If they win (or lose close), they have finally found a formula that works for them, an identity (a classic blue-collar work ethic), and can continue to establish this foundation with their youthful roster. If they lose, it'll be a reminder that they got too high on themselves and they'll know what they need to do to continue to get better, that perfection in football comes with attitude and consistency. No matter what, 17.5 will be what gets this program on the right track.
Final Score Prediction
Ohio State 21 -- 17 Penn State
WE ARE........................
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
McGloin to Start
After JoePa's press conference today, it is clear that McGloin will be the starter going into this weekend's game against the Buckeyes. There has been much excitement surrounding this former walk-on, and he finally gets his first real test of the season in "The Shoe" in Columbus. I know that a lot of people have been jumping on his bandwagon, following this three game winning streak, but I'm here to tell all of you that he is not the solution at the Quarterback position on this team for the future. Again, he may be hot now and his stats don't lie, but they do not tell the whole truth either.
It's amazing how winning can blind people and confuse them about the true identity of their team (this is why some LSU fans still think Les Miles is an awesome coach) , this is why we have coaches in this sport. Eventually, the coaches will make the decision to bring Bolden back, the only way McGloin keeps his job is if he continues to stay hot (which he wont). However, out of all the problems that we had in the early season, the QB position was not one of them. The offensive line was broken, had a tough time getting any push against any of our early season opponents, and that includes Kent State and YSU. The receivers were dropping passes left and right all over the field. The running backs were playing with no drive, lacked any emotion, and none of them were running anywhere close to the level they are running the ball now. If that was not bad enough, the coaches were making questionable calls, people were calling for Joe to Go, and over 13 of our regulars were on the injury report. Funny how a 3 game win streak makes everyone forget.
So what changed? What has brought on this late season success and sparked this offense to life? A few things, and I'm going to introduce you to them in the order that they occurred. The first is the level of competition that we have been facing the past few games. The last three teams that we have faced, have been allowing an average of 256.67 (Michigan allowing 290 passing yards per game, NW 250, Minnesota 230, etc.) yards per game in the air, while the first 6 opponents we faced were allowing a mere 196.33 passing yards per game. Another factor is that the last three opponents we faced were averaging under 2 sacks per game, while every other opponent we've faced has been averaging just over four sacks per game. You have to take these things into account, how much pressure did each quarterback face, what were the secondaries like, how much run support did they get from our running backs?
If you do not agree with the above paragraph, let me give you a concrete example. Both Quarterbacks faced the Minnesota defense, I'm just going to go ahead and list their statistics below, and you make the comparison yourself.
McGloin, 6/13 76 yards, 2 TDs 1 Int, played for 40 minutes
Bolden, 11/13 130, 1 TD, played for 20 minutes
On to the next point, the surrounding cast has stepped up their game since the loss to Illinois. I do not know if that game lit a fire up under their behinds or what, but it has been an amazing turnaround from the sulking and complaining from the early season games. Royster has run for 346 yards in the last three games, while barely averaging 50 yards a game through the first six games. The receivers have gone from dropping 7 passes a game, to only dropping just a littler over 1 pass a game. All the credit for this improvement has gone to a renewed mental state and a lot of credit should go to the improved play of the offensive line. Their attitude has changed and charged this offense up. They are opening holes for whoever is running the ball, getting to the second level on screen plays, and giving the QB an extra second or two to let the routes develop downfield (not to mention the defense has to account for the run game and they're not just focusing on the passing game like they were earlier in the season). If these factors were consistent all year, the results would've been consistent in the other games as well. Not saying we would've won the earlier games, but the contests would have been much closer with the outcomes.
The final factor has been the game-plan in all of these contests. The coaching staff knew that they would have to open up the playbook and let the Quarterbacks pass the ball if they were going to have a chance to compete with Minnesota's, Michigan's, and NW's spread attacks.They knew that if they were going to have any chance to compete, that they would have to take more chances and risks down the field. The other teams we played earlier in the season, were much more dominant teams, and played a more physical style; hence, the coaching staff game-planned for a ball control, slower developing offensive scheme. That is a technical way of saying that they were trying to keep things simple, limit mistakes, and make the game a close one. If they only exposed the same match-ups that they have been the past few weeks, but then again, remember point number one, the other teams they faced were much more physical (Yes.....Bama, Temple, Iowa, Illinois play a much more physical style than NW, Michigan, and Minnesota).
So you can go ahead and keep the Blue and White Blindfold on and jump on the McGloin bandwagon, or you can open your eyes and see how much Bolden means to this team. Heck, I'm rooting for McGloin because I want to beat Ohio State as much as anybody else, but the truth is that our best option to win, our best option for the future is Bolden at Quarterback. Sure, McGloin has the hot hand right now, let him finish the season out if he continues this hot streak, but if this team wants to reach greatness and win a National Championship they are going to need much more than "leadership" in the huddle. Let's see what he can do against this Ohio State defense and we'll move forward from there.
WE ARE...............................
It's amazing how winning can blind people and confuse them about the true identity of their team (this is why some LSU fans still think Les Miles is an awesome coach) , this is why we have coaches in this sport. Eventually, the coaches will make the decision to bring Bolden back, the only way McGloin keeps his job is if he continues to stay hot (which he wont). However, out of all the problems that we had in the early season, the QB position was not one of them. The offensive line was broken, had a tough time getting any push against any of our early season opponents, and that includes Kent State and YSU. The receivers were dropping passes left and right all over the field. The running backs were playing with no drive, lacked any emotion, and none of them were running anywhere close to the level they are running the ball now. If that was not bad enough, the coaches were making questionable calls, people were calling for Joe to Go, and over 13 of our regulars were on the injury report. Funny how a 3 game win streak makes everyone forget.
So what changed? What has brought on this late season success and sparked this offense to life? A few things, and I'm going to introduce you to them in the order that they occurred. The first is the level of competition that we have been facing the past few games. The last three teams that we have faced, have been allowing an average of 256.67 (Michigan allowing 290 passing yards per game, NW 250, Minnesota 230, etc.) yards per game in the air, while the first 6 opponents we faced were allowing a mere 196.33 passing yards per game. Another factor is that the last three opponents we faced were averaging under 2 sacks per game, while every other opponent we've faced has been averaging just over four sacks per game. You have to take these things into account, how much pressure did each quarterback face, what were the secondaries like, how much run support did they get from our running backs?
If you do not agree with the above paragraph, let me give you a concrete example. Both Quarterbacks faced the Minnesota defense, I'm just going to go ahead and list their statistics below, and you make the comparison yourself.
McGloin, 6/13 76 yards, 2 TDs 1 Int, played for 40 minutes
Bolden, 11/13 130, 1 TD, played for 20 minutes
On to the next point, the surrounding cast has stepped up their game since the loss to Illinois. I do not know if that game lit a fire up under their behinds or what, but it has been an amazing turnaround from the sulking and complaining from the early season games. Royster has run for 346 yards in the last three games, while barely averaging 50 yards a game through the first six games. The receivers have gone from dropping 7 passes a game, to only dropping just a littler over 1 pass a game. All the credit for this improvement has gone to a renewed mental state and a lot of credit should go to the improved play of the offensive line. Their attitude has changed and charged this offense up. They are opening holes for whoever is running the ball, getting to the second level on screen plays, and giving the QB an extra second or two to let the routes develop downfield (not to mention the defense has to account for the run game and they're not just focusing on the passing game like they were earlier in the season). If these factors were consistent all year, the results would've been consistent in the other games as well. Not saying we would've won the earlier games, but the contests would have been much closer with the outcomes.
The final factor has been the game-plan in all of these contests. The coaching staff knew that they would have to open up the playbook and let the Quarterbacks pass the ball if they were going to have a chance to compete with Minnesota's, Michigan's, and NW's spread attacks.They knew that if they were going to have any chance to compete, that they would have to take more chances and risks down the field. The other teams we played earlier in the season, were much more dominant teams, and played a more physical style; hence, the coaching staff game-planned for a ball control, slower developing offensive scheme. That is a technical way of saying that they were trying to keep things simple, limit mistakes, and make the game a close one. If they only exposed the same match-ups that they have been the past few weeks, but then again, remember point number one, the other teams they faced were much more physical (Yes.....Bama, Temple, Iowa, Illinois play a much more physical style than NW, Michigan, and Minnesota).
So you can go ahead and keep the Blue and White Blindfold on and jump on the McGloin bandwagon, or you can open your eyes and see how much Bolden means to this team. Heck, I'm rooting for McGloin because I want to beat Ohio State as much as anybody else, but the truth is that our best option to win, our best option for the future is Bolden at Quarterback. Sure, McGloin has the hot hand right now, let him finish the season out if he continues this hot streak, but if this team wants to reach greatness and win a National Championship they are going to need much more than "leadership" in the huddle. Let's see what he can do against this Ohio State defense and we'll move forward from there.
WE ARE...............................
Monday, November 8, 2010
400
Saturday came and went, and just like that JoePa has reached an unbelievable milestone with win number 400. All week he said that it was not that big of a deal, that he is more focused on the task at hand in Northwestern, and how great that Persa kid is on the other side of the field. Well, he was right, but by the end of the game, none of that mattered as JoePa was sitting on the shoulders of two burly offensive linemen and SuePa was acting as his stand-in translator with ESPN because even he was too excited to articulate what he had just accomplished.
As for the game, it lived up to the billing, and was a great way to usher JoePa into the 400 win column. This was a true Joe Paterno team, a team with grit and fire, that won with a smash mouth style, a team that took control of the game. Even though Northwestern came out and punched Penn State right in the jaw, this team stayed under control, stuck to their gameplan, and came back and won this one for Joe Paterno. I do not care what anyone says about the emergence of McGloin, this was a complete team effort.
Northwestern came out in this one and just jumped on Penn State from the get go. They were pressuring the quarterback, making plays on both sides of the ball and Persa was gashing the Penn State defense. Penn State was stuck in its base 4-3 defense and was struggling to get to the ball carriers in the open field. On the offensive side of the ball, the team was getting a decent push off the ball, but play-calling was rather inconsistent for the first quarter of play, no matter who was the QB, McGloin or Bolden. Two things happened that changed this one, Penn State made the adjustment on defense, switching to the 4-2-5 alignment (Stoops and Mauti at the LB in this formation) and putting more speed on the field to deal with Northwestern's spread and the two minute drill.
On the defensive side of the ball, Penn State made the adjustment to bring in 5 defensive backs, which allowed the linebackers to shift all of their focus to Persa. This is when Penn State said that we're going to match up 5 of our athletes against 5 of your athletes and challenge you to beat us one on one in coverage. Let me tell you what, the secondary stepped up to challenge and made this game a different one from the latter half of the second quarter all the way until the end of the game. This allowed the two linebackers to make plays on the ball, no more read and react, they just had assignment, and boy did they respond. Anytime Persa went to his left Mauti was there, anytime Persa went to his right Stupar was in his face, this is what its about, bringing pressure and forcing this guy to beat you with his arm. The only time they had success were when we would blitz and revert to zone coverage, but the coaches did a great job of limiting this style of play and bringing constant pressure.
On the offensive side of the ball, the credit goes to the entire offense during the two minute drill. This was a wake up call for the coaching staff and for the QB. Up until this point, neither of the QBs were having success against this Northwestern defense (keep in mind, Bolden only got two series). What the two minute drill did for this offense speaks volumes, it forced McGloin to take what he was given, and boy was that a wake up call. Up until this point, MoGloin was just focused on taking shots down the field and was locked in on Derek Moye, but during the two minute drill he was putting the ball in the hands of the playmakers on our offense and let them make plays. This aggressive and methodical play-calling showed Penn State that they could score at will as they capped off a 91 yard drive in under a minute with a Touchdown just before the half.
Just when it seemed as if all hope was gone, this team was injected with some confidence. I know a lot of you want to credit McGloin (look for a future article on this topic), but the credit goes to the whole team. The momentum built off that drive carried over into the second half, and everyone came out firing on all cylinders. The running game got going, the ball was put into the hands of other receivers against NW's porous secondary, and most of all the coaches exposed this far inferior defense. They put the other team's defense in a position where they would have to make difficult decisions, and most of all difficult plays in the open field. As the team is gaining more and more confidence, so is the coaching staff in this team. The sky is now the limit, let's see if the coaches can continue to capitalize on this confidence and get JoePa 401 next weekend.
WE ARE....................................
As for the game, it lived up to the billing, and was a great way to usher JoePa into the 400 win column. This was a true Joe Paterno team, a team with grit and fire, that won with a smash mouth style, a team that took control of the game. Even though Northwestern came out and punched Penn State right in the jaw, this team stayed under control, stuck to their gameplan, and came back and won this one for Joe Paterno. I do not care what anyone says about the emergence of McGloin, this was a complete team effort.
Northwestern came out in this one and just jumped on Penn State from the get go. They were pressuring the quarterback, making plays on both sides of the ball and Persa was gashing the Penn State defense. Penn State was stuck in its base 4-3 defense and was struggling to get to the ball carriers in the open field. On the offensive side of the ball, the team was getting a decent push off the ball, but play-calling was rather inconsistent for the first quarter of play, no matter who was the QB, McGloin or Bolden. Two things happened that changed this one, Penn State made the adjustment on defense, switching to the 4-2-5 alignment (Stoops and Mauti at the LB in this formation) and putting more speed on the field to deal with Northwestern's spread and the two minute drill.
On the defensive side of the ball, Penn State made the adjustment to bring in 5 defensive backs, which allowed the linebackers to shift all of their focus to Persa. This is when Penn State said that we're going to match up 5 of our athletes against 5 of your athletes and challenge you to beat us one on one in coverage. Let me tell you what, the secondary stepped up to challenge and made this game a different one from the latter half of the second quarter all the way until the end of the game. This allowed the two linebackers to make plays on the ball, no more read and react, they just had assignment, and boy did they respond. Anytime Persa went to his left Mauti was there, anytime Persa went to his right Stupar was in his face, this is what its about, bringing pressure and forcing this guy to beat you with his arm. The only time they had success were when we would blitz and revert to zone coverage, but the coaches did a great job of limiting this style of play and bringing constant pressure.
On the offensive side of the ball, the credit goes to the entire offense during the two minute drill. This was a wake up call for the coaching staff and for the QB. Up until this point, neither of the QBs were having success against this Northwestern defense (keep in mind, Bolden only got two series). What the two minute drill did for this offense speaks volumes, it forced McGloin to take what he was given, and boy was that a wake up call. Up until this point, MoGloin was just focused on taking shots down the field and was locked in on Derek Moye, but during the two minute drill he was putting the ball in the hands of the playmakers on our offense and let them make plays. This aggressive and methodical play-calling showed Penn State that they could score at will as they capped off a 91 yard drive in under a minute with a Touchdown just before the half.
Just when it seemed as if all hope was gone, this team was injected with some confidence. I know a lot of you want to credit McGloin (look for a future article on this topic), but the credit goes to the whole team. The momentum built off that drive carried over into the second half, and everyone came out firing on all cylinders. The running game got going, the ball was put into the hands of other receivers against NW's porous secondary, and most of all the coaches exposed this far inferior defense. They put the other team's defense in a position where they would have to make difficult decisions, and most of all difficult plays in the open field. As the team is gaining more and more confidence, so is the coaching staff in this team. The sky is now the limit, let's see if the coaches can continue to capitalize on this confidence and get JoePa 401 next weekend.
WE ARE....................................
Monday, November 1, 2010
Penn State Defeats Michigan 41-31, Internet Celebration Ensues
Wow.
Not many people saw that one coming. Penn State, fielding their third string walk-on quarterback, got into a shootout with the number 2 offense in the country and won. Convincingly. The offense was hot for almost the entire game and the defense came up with big stops when it mattered most. Special teams was great, as it has been all year long.
I was at the game, and that was one of the most enjoyable, jubilant atmospheres I've ever experienced in Beaver Stadium. 4-3 record be darned, this crowd was behind Penn State from start to finish. The atmosphere was electric, the noise was positively deafening, and despite some big plays from Michigan, the crowd was never taken out of the game.
And to top it all off, there were forty (yes, 40!) prospective recruits in attendance from the classes of 2011 and 2012.
There'll be time for analysis later. I'll be back later on to talk about why I think this may be a key turning point in the season, and I'm sure Ali will pop in with his take shortly.
But for now, enjoy this win. It's a big one, and it feels great. In the true spirit of Michigan HATE, I now present to you some appropriately subtitled celebratory photos...
Not many people saw that one coming. Penn State, fielding their third string walk-on quarterback, got into a shootout with the number 2 offense in the country and won. Convincingly. The offense was hot for almost the entire game and the defense came up with big stops when it mattered most. Special teams was great, as it has been all year long.
I was at the game, and that was one of the most enjoyable, jubilant atmospheres I've ever experienced in Beaver Stadium. 4-3 record be darned, this crowd was behind Penn State from start to finish. The atmosphere was electric, the noise was positively deafening, and despite some big plays from Michigan, the crowd was never taken out of the game.
And to top it all off, there were forty (yes, 40!) prospective recruits in attendance from the classes of 2011 and 2012.
There'll be time for analysis later. I'll be back later on to talk about why I think this may be a key turning point in the season, and I'm sure Ali will pop in with his take shortly.
But for now, enjoy this win. It's a big one, and it feels great. In the true spirit of Michigan HATE, I now present to you some appropriately subtitled celebratory photos...
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