BCS Picture still a little blurry

Here we go again, the season is coming to a close, and we still will have to wait until selection Sunday to find out what bowls are going to be the most anticipated. Throughout this article, I am just going to lay out what the selection process is going to look like, and what our chances are of going to a BCS Bowl game.

To start off, to be eligible for a BCS bowl game, you have to satisfy three requirements. The three requirements include being ranked in the Top 14 of the final BCS standings at the end of the season, win your conferences automatic bid, and have no more than two losses to be considered for an at large selection (you may however have more than two losses and automatically qualify for a BCS bowl if your conference has an automatic bid).

After that, the breakdown of automatic bids includes that each of the Big Six(Big East, ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Pac Ten, and Big 12) conferences receives an automatic bid. If you are not a member of one of the Big Six, than one of your conference champions is guaranteed an automatic bid only if they are ranked higher than one of the Big Six conference champions in the final BCS standings.

So with that being said, what does the BCS picture currently look like? We're going to first start off with the 5 BCS bowls, and they consist of the National Championship Game(NCG), Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, and the Orange Bowl. So overall there are ten positions available to participate in a BCS bowl. The NCG is automatically decided by the final BCS standings, with number one playing number two. As for the rest, the pick their conference affiliates which I have listed below:

Orange Bowl: ACC vs. At Large
Rose Bowl: Pac Ten vs. Big Ten
Sugar: SEC vs. At- Large
Fiesta: Big 12 vs. At-Large

***With the exception that one of those at-large bids is actually the Big East Champion.

Should one of the conferences affiliate champions be chosen to play in the NCG, then they will be granted with a replacement pick or what we call an at large selection. Below I have also listed the current BCS standings, and based on that I am going to lay out

1.	Florida	12-0
2.	Alabama	12-0
3.	Texas	12-0
4.	TCU	12-0
5.	Cincinnati	11-0
6.	Boise St.	12-0
7.	Oregon	9-2
8.	Ohio St.	10-2
9.	Iowa	10-2
10.	Georgia Tech	10-2
11.	Penn St.	10-2
12.	Virginia Tech	9-3
13.	LSU	9-3
14.	BYU	10-2

Based on the current standings and current conference champions alread crowned, I am going to list what the BCS games are going to look like. Following that I am going to break down the three scenarios that would most likely affect the Nittany Lions chances of getting into a BCS bowl game, and the final BCS picture is solely dictated on the following situations. The selection process is also listed in order that they bowls would get to choose their matchups this year.

Once again, these are the most probable situation based on the following scenarios, not exactly whats going to happen if those scenarios are satisfied.

If Texas wins:

NCG: Florida/Bama winner vs. Texas
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Fiesta Bowl: TCU vs. Iowa (65%)/Penn State (35%)
Sugar Bowl: Florida/Bama loser vs. Cincy
Orange Bowl: GT/Clemson winner vs. Boise State

Left Out: Penn State

If Texas loses/Cincy wins and moves past TCU in standings.

NCG: Florida/Bama winner vs. Cincy
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Texas vs. Florida/Bama loser
Orange Bowl: GT/Clemson winner vs. Penn State
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. TCU

Left Out: Boise State and Iowa

If Texas loses/Pitt Wins or Cincy wins and remains behind TCU in standings:

NCG: Florida/Bama winner vs. TCU
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Florida/Bama loser vs. Texas
Orange Bowl: GT/Clemson winner vs. Penn State
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. Cincy

Left out: Boise State and Iowa

That should give you quite an idea on how things will shape up for the remainder of the season. I believe our best chances of going to a BCS bowl game are in the Orange bowl gets to satisfy its selection first; however, we still stand a chance for the Fiesta bowl if Texas goes to play for the NCG. But for the time being, just keep your fingers crossed and hope that we don't get looked over by the selection committee as we have been looked over by the computers the past couple of weeks.

WE ARE....................