Gator Chomp

The year has come and gone, there are still plenty of rumors with life, and Penn State has one last game to play. With all the speculation about JoePa's health, his retirement, Urban's retirement, Penn State's next coach, and assistants jumping ship (yes this sentence was meant to be as excessive as all the statements listed above), it seems as if everyone has forgotten about the Outback Bowl. This was supposed to be a match up of two storied programs seeking redemption for sub-par seasons; however, it has turned into one of the finest media circuses out there.

Let's just try and focus on tomorrow's game.

On the Offensive:
Penn State has struggled all season long to find an identity on offense, playing a game of Jekyll and Hide all season long. It seems like every time this team has established some sort of rhythm on offense, some one has taken a wrench and jammed up the gears. It has been the worst up and down roller coaster that I have had to experience watching because it is so promising, but I keep forgetting that that is all it is. Potential, waiting to be fulfilled over the next couple of seasons.

With that being said, I would expect Penn State to struggle a little bit on offense against this Florida defense. Whether or not Janorris Jenkins is sitting out, the Gator's boast two other defensive backs that are bound to be early round picks in this year's upcoming NFL Draft, in Ahmad Black and Will Hill. This is one of the best ball hawking defenses in the country folks, so I wouldn't be expecting Penn State to stick with its game-plan of setting up the run with the pass in this game. If they do, they better think of some more routes to run then wheels, flats, screens, and skinny posts. If they do not, then Penn State will be in for a long afternoon. The best match-up for Penn State is their O-line against Florida's D-line. They could expose the inexperience along the line, and get to UF's very raw linebackers. If they do not capitalize on this match-up, then look forward to shaking your head to the tune of at least two picks by mid-third quarter and a very frustrating contest in all.

Don't get me wrong, Penn State will be able to move the ball against this defense, but will they be able to capitalize on their opportunities?

On the Defensive:
Even though we've played one SEC team already this year, and faced many teams that run the spread, this will be the toughest test for Penn State's defense. For common college football fans (Big Ten fans that don't watch any SEC games) the consistent belief is that Florida's offense is rather inept this year, and this poses a great match-up for Penn State's defense. The fact remains that there is no truth to that statement whatsoever; yes, Florida's offense had their fare share of struggles, but they are very far from inept. They are just two plays away from being 9-3 rather than 7-5 on the year, so stop rationalizing and convincing yourselves that this team is far worse than it actually is.

Florida poses at least five running threats on the offensive side of the ball, two in QBs Trey Burton and Jordan Reed, the other three in Demps, Rainey, and Moody. These guys do not need a lot of room to run the ball, and are blazing fast. I don't mean 4.4 fast either, both these guys have been clocked at sub 4.3 times in the forty and one of them is the current NCAA champ in the 100 meter sprint with a time of 9.96. This isn't the argument of SEC speed versus Big Ten, this is the argument that this team has a consistent pace all game long.  This is going to be the key to the game for Florida, running out of the spread, and exposing match-ups working for the outside-in trying to create lanes for all these guys.

Penn State will have to play strict assignment football if they have any chance of stopping this attack, and they are very capable of doing it as well. The defensive line has to stay healthy throughout the game and prevent themselves from getting too far up field (which creates running lanes for UF's ball carriers). The key for our defense to have success is to play contain rather than to push the issue of creating pressure around the QB. Florida's offense is designed to thrive under constant pressure because their philosophy is simple: Let the defense play their way out of the picture, find the soft spot underneath, and put the ball in the hands of their play-makers in space. Lucky for us, Penn State's defense does a great job of keeping everything in front with our safe play philosophy; however, we have to tackle in open space and work together.

Florida will be able to move the ball at will as long as they execute well and refrain from taking too many shots down the field. Earlier in the year, they lost their identity and tried to do too much with Brantley's arm, if they can refrain themselves from getting overzealous, they will have a lot of success.



Final Prediction:
Florida 34 -- 24 Penn State

Shocking Prediction: Regardless of all the quieting of the rumors, I'm going to stick with my guns and say that Joe Paterno does in fact retire shortly after the end of the season. The only factor remains is National Signing Day, will he wait until Penn State has wrapped up this year's recruiting, or will he leave shortly after the Outback Bowl.