Happy New Year

Well, this certainly is a heck of a time to be a Penn State fan.

I had been visiting with family for the holidays all day on the 2nd, and hadn't really been paying attention to my PSU news sites or Twitter feeds. I ended the day at the movies, and couldn't understand why my phone wouldn't stop vibrating throughout the entire movie. After the movie, the first thing I did was listen to my voicemail, where the first message I heard was from a good friend who sounded a little emotional. He told me that “the sky is falling in Nittany Nation” and asked me to call him to try to cheer him up.

Happy New Year, Penn State fans.

For those who have no idea what I'm referring to, Rob Bolden, according to his father, will definitely be transferring from Penn State to a school that is not in the state of Michigan. JoePa is now publicly stumping for Tom Bradley to get the just-now-vacated-for-a-second-time Pitt Head Coaching job. These are not small things.

Now as the presumptuously self-appointed “voice of perspective and reason” on this blog, I'd like to offer some general thoughts on what's going on in the PSU fanbase right now before I give my thoughts on what this all means. First, a quote from Black Shoe Diaries' post-Outback Bowl article that I think is especially prescient:

I just love my Lions. I don't go overly critical when they play poorly. I just go silent, which is what a lot of other people should try once in a while. Change is coming. Good days are ahead. Of this I am sure. We just have to wait for them.

I'm not looking forward to the next seven months. I just have a feeling things are going to be ugly around this program. A lot of people are going to be upset when a week or two go by and Joe Paterno hasn't retired. A lot of people are going to be pissed off if McGloin is allowed within a hundred yards of the huddle in the Blue-White Game. It's not going to be pretty...

But here we are. Consider yourself officially in the offseason. As they say here in Texas, hunker down and ride it out.

Beyond that, my advice is the same it was after the Illinois loss. Relax and remind yourself that there are more important things than college football. (Really, there are.) Stay away from Penn State message boards (especially at Fight On State). For the love of Pete, stay away from editorials written by Bob Flounders, David Jones, or Corey Giger. All of the above revel in anything that could possibly make JoePa look bad, and they're in full glory mode right now. They're going to blow up every shred of a story that crosses their desk and convince you that right now, the program is worse off than it was after the 2000 loss to Toledo and things are doomed to only get worse unless and until Joe – the sole cause of anything and everything bad that happens at PSU – leaves (after which, of course, everything will be perfect).

When bad news hits the internet fan base, it ceases to be bad news and becomes a portent of the program's utter destruction. If you listen to the head coaches (at least I'm assuming that what's they are, given their clearly unassailable knowledge of college football) that frequent the Fight On State message boards, the program has been “on the brink of a total meltdown” at least three or four times in the last two years. And yet we're all still here in one piece.

Now, this really could be the beginning of the end in the sense that the departure of Bolden and Bradley is the straw that breaks the camel's back and results in Joe leaving, after which a total restructuring of the program is all but inevitable (ironically, I would think this would be good news to Fight On State, Flounders, Jones, & Giger – that's exactly what they want). But I don't know that, and unless you're Tim Curley, Graham Spanier, or Joe Paterno, you haven't the faintest clue either, so let's not get ahead of ourselves. We're right in the middle of this story right now, and things could change very quickly and very drastically (Shawney Kersey anyone?). Don't hit the panic button quite yet.

Without further ado...

My Take On Bolden
As a Team Bolden diehard, I'm obviously not happy with the news. I wish Bolden was staying. I think it was all but guaranteed that Bolden would win a fair and open QB competition this spring and emerge as the starter next season – even the most ardent McGloin supporters have always admitted that “Bolden is the future.” That said, I'm loathe to blame Bolden or the coaches. I can't and won't disagree with anything that Bolden's father said in his statement because I agree 100%. On the other hand, I can also understand those who support the coaches in this situation. To quote again from Black Shoe Diaries:

Maybe Joe Paterno should have played Robert Bolden for a series or two in the third quarter. Maybe not. I don't know. He was obviously struggling, but then McGloin got all the snaps in practice this week and in a sense I can see going with the horse that got you here. It's because of McGloin that Penn State was even playing today. So I can understand letting the kid finish it out.

While I take exception to the implication that McGloin's play was necessary to get Penn State to a bowl game, the truth is that McGloin's play did get Penn State to a bowl game. I'll repeat what I've always said regarding the coaches – they know the whole story and we don't, so I'm not going to sit in judgment of people who do this professionally when I don't even have all the facts.

I don't think that the day after an emotional loss is the time to make a major decision like this, but at the same time, it's Bolden's life and he has to do what he thinks is best for him. As Bolden's father said, “I completely appreciate the opportunity [Penn State] gave him. At the end of the day, they have to do what they think is best for their program. But just the same, not just Rob but everyone has to do what's best for them. We feel right now Penn State is not what's best for Rob.” I think that's really the story here. Penn State coaches did what they thought was best at the time, and Rob Bolden is doing what he thinks is best now. I hope Rob changes his mind. If not, I hope he goes somewhere outside the Big Ten, and wish him all the best.

If Bolden leaves, I don't believe the program is doomed to offensive ineptitude until we get another blue chip recruit. We still have a blue chip recruit with four years of eligibility – Paul Jones. Jones was the star of last spring's Blue-White Game, he received a lot of praise from Joe yesterday, and I wouldn't at all mind having him under center to start the 2011 season. McGloin is bound to improve during the offseason, and with Bolden leaving, Kevin Newsome may even decide to stick around. Penn State still has a ton of young talent on offense and while it hurts to lose a kid as great as Bolden, it's also not enough to kill Penn State's hopes for success.

My Take On Bradley
Joe's comments to the press about Bradley yesterday confirm what had been rumored for a long time – that PSU Defensive Coordinator Tom Bradley would like to be the head coach at Pitt. While it puts a bad taste in my mouth to think that anyone associated with Penn State would want anything to do with Pitt, I have to admit that it makes a lot of sense for Bradley. Bradley already has a house in the area, he recruits extremely well there, and it's becoming increasingly apparent that Joe's successor will most likely not come from within. Pitt is a big name school with a storied history that's been mediocre for a very long time, so Bradley can bring improvement and make a name for himself right away. Apparently Joe is content to let Bradley go too. While Bradley has taken a lot of well-deserved praise for putting together some top notch defenses, a lot of that praise also belongs to Larry Johnson Sr. (Defensive Line Coach) and Ron Vanderlinden (Linebackers' Coach). The specific defensive position that Bradley is responsible for (Secondary) is often the weakest part of Penn State's defense. I have no doubt that if Bradley leaves, LJ Sr. or Vanderlinden can step in as the Defensive Coordinator and Penn State's defense will do just fine.

The bigger issue is recruiting. Bradley has been responsible for the vast majority of players that Penn State has recruited from Western PA, including some very big names like Stefen Wisniewski, Sean Lee, and Paul Posluszny. Losing his recruiting ability hurts enough, but if he takes that same ability to a school that's even closer to where a lot of these players live and has success there, it could devastate PSU's recruiting efforts in the region. This is a very big concern. If Bradley does leave, in addition to finding a new coach for the Secondary, Penn State needs to find someone who can recruit and recruit well – if not in Western PA, then in a new and possibly more fertile area like Florida, Texas, or California. That's not going to be easy, but I believe it will be necessary to Penn State's continued success as long as the current staff is in charge of the program.

My Take On Joe
I have no doubt that there are already 20+ rumors swirling regarding exactly what happened among Joe, McGloin, and Bolden. I'm not going to address any of them. Rumors are rumors. I'm not interested in rumors – I'm interested in what we know. And what we know is really only a few things – what happened during the season, what Joe said, and what Bolden's father said.

I've already discussed what happened during the season so you know where I stand on that. I've also already said that I pretty much agree with the sentiments of Bolden's father. I don't think that Joe's post-game comments where he refused to be too hard on McGloin mean much of anything either way. Joe stuck up for his player, as any good coach should and would. (At least he didn't say, “I'm a man. I'm 84!”) After the Outback Bowl, I find it doubtful that Joe was still stuck on McGloin, and Bolden has to know that as well. To reiterate, I think the coaches did what they thought was best at the time, and Bolden's doing what he thinks is best now.

The real question is what this may or may not mean for the future. I don't give a whiff of credibility to the infamous email, and prior to yesterday's events, I was all but certain that Joe would be returning next year. The rumors of Joe's retirement mean nothing – every year since and including 1982 has been Joe's last year according to “inside sources” and anonymous “experts.” Nothing was new or different about the rumors this year; however, these recent events are not good news for Joe or anyone who wants him to stay at Penn State.

Joe still wants and intends to come back if his health allows him to. Of that I have no doubt. The only people who can potentially stop him are Graham Spanier and Tim Curley, and the people that they're primarily concerned with pleasing are the big-money boosters – people like Terry Pegula who donated $88 million to jump-start Penn State's Division 1 hockey program. It's no secret that most of these boosters are loyal to Joe to a fault – that's part of the reason why Joe has been able to stay around as long as he has. The question is, does their loyalty to Joe have a limit, and could they be reaching it? I honestly have no idea. But I have to speculate that a lot of them will not like losing Bolden or seeing Bradley go to Pitt and may blame Joe for it. I think things may be approaching a tipping point. I don't think we're there yet, but if current trends continue, we may get there sooner than I originally thought. No matter what, I am not expecting a public, ugly, protracted Bowden-like battle. I think (and hope) our boosters, administration, and Joe are classier than that. But we are certainly living in interesting, interesting times. Stay tuned...