Ron Zook is calling this a must win game for his Fighting Illini while Joe Paterno barely gives this game any hype and moves on to the next question. In my belief system, I believe that every game is a must win, but in this situation, I'm going to go ahead a defer to JoePa. While everyone has already hopped off the Bolden train and given up hope for the season, I'm going to keep you all informed about the better days to come. While everyone is doing the trendy thing and picking Illinois in this one, I'm going to tell you why Penn State will get the win this weekend and show glimpses of their great "potential."
While you are all familiar with our situation here at Penn State and our 3-2 start to the season, not a lot of you know anything about Illinois. I guarantee that what most of you know is that they have a stout defense and have a great power rushing attack with running back Mikel LeShoure. Up and coming first year QB in Nathan Scheelhaase looks like a promising young player and a great starter in the making. It all sounds pretty familiar doesn't it, the same old thread all week, but other than that very similar to Penn State's description, freshman QB, proven running back, and a formidable defense.
Here's the thing though, Illinois is only getting all of this hype because of their play against Ohio State last week. All the reasoning behind the support for Illinois getting the win this weekend has to do with the results of that game and how they played that whole game. The truth is simple, Ohio State did not execute as well as they normally do and Illinois played above their standard game, which is a little credit to them. I will also give them credit for staying disciplined and making Ohio State one-dimensional holding the Buckeyes to a net total of 77 yards passing. Here's the kicker though, Ohio State only threw the ball 18 times and rushed for a total of 213 yards. The question remains, is there defense really that good or was this more so a vintage Pryor performance because of a less than stellar effort?
Let's say that most of these beat writers and their trendy picks of an upset this week are on to something and are right about the Illini defense. The fact remains that the Illini remain one-dimensional on offense (averaging 300 yds/game, 200 on the ground) and have struggled all year moving the ball against less than superb defensive units. Their offensive scheme is effective only when it is complemented by a competent passing game. Let's just say for their sake they are sub-par through the air, even though they might have some weapons at the skills positions, they just don't have the capability of moving it through the air effectively.
In order for Illinois to win this one, not only will they need to continue their play on defense, they will need a perfect day on offense against a good Penn State defense. The fact that they have not had a great day on offense against a less than average defense bodes well for us. I'm not saying that they are not capable of winning, I'm just saying that it is unlikely. In all truth, Scheelhaase is a dual-threat QB and he will not hesitant to drop his head and run for the sticks. Mikel Leshoure is a bruising tailback and can single-handedly ware a defense out, but they will need to be a complete offense against this Penn State defense.
In the end, I think Penn State will surprise some folks and have a great game this week. I know that they tend to get off to slow starts, especially after big games in Prime Time, but I think they will come out with a fire this week. I think the coaches will open it up a little more and the team will be a little on edge, knowing that they are capable of greater things than their games against Bama and Iowa. This week Penn State comes out of gates swinging and make progress in the red zone as they allow Bolden to throw more in the red zone, and give him more opportunities to make the right reads. Look for Royster to pace the attack and the team to take it straight to the Illini all game long.
Penn State 34- 17 Illinois
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