Prime Time Lions

It's gameday in State College and the Wolverines are coming into town for a prime time match up under the lights on Halloween eve. It does not get any better than this, actually, it would be if both teams lived up to the hype carried by the name of their respective programs this season. Either way, it is still a huge match up for both programs, as Rich Rod is looking to turn the corner at Michigan, and Penn State is looking for a signature win to capitalize on during their rebuilding project known as the 2010 season.

We can go ahead and get started with the basics in this one, both teams still have more questions to be answered then solutions all over the field. Penn State is coming in to this game without up to 9 regulars on the defensive side of the ball (14 regulars if you include guys on the offensive side), uncertainty as to who will start at QB as Rob Bolden is healing up from a concussion, and the pressure of getting Royster to breaking the all-time rushing record at Penn State (he is 31 yards away from greatness). On the other side, Michigan's own QB is coming off of an injury as well, their defense is so thin in the secondary that a fifth year walk on wide receiver is starting at one of the defensive back spots, and they just removed a 5th year senior LB from their starting lineup because the former All Big Ten selection was just not getting the job done.

In other words, this game is going to be somewhat of a shootout in its own right, as Michigan possesses a prolific offense and literally scores at DRob's will, Penn State has an offense that is well equipped to tear this Michigan defense up as well. If we're being honest, most of the high schools in Pennsylvania are equipped well enough to drop at least 24 points on Michigan's defense this year. The most interesting match up on the offensive side will be our ground game against their rush defense. I know that whoever is at the helm in QB will have a great opportunity of moving the ball down the field against Michigan, but its how Royster, Green, and Redd play that intrigue me in this match up. I would look for the coaches to try and get Royster the record as early as possible, but also to set up the passing game in case Bolden is not back their starting.

As for the defense, they have a very large task at hand in containing DRob. Will the defensive ends (who are former DT in Jones and Hill) be able to get to the edge quick enough to contain DRob or will he have a career day on the ground against this defense. The good news is that Penn State has been doing a great job at sealing off the edge all year, but the even better news is that DRob is not a bruiser like LeShoure, Richardson, and Robinson, who imposed their will against Penn State with their physical running styles. Another thing to look out for in this game will be the play of Khairi Fortt, as he was practicing all week at both LB and the stand up defensive end position. The only explanation for this would be the fact that Penn State wants a guy with speed on the edge that can adjust a little more quickly to close the running lanes.

In order for Penn State to win this game, they will have to go against some of the gameplanning tactics that they have used this year. The main reason why is because it is not a question of when Michigan will score, it is a question of how much. If they gameplan against DRob similiar to what Michigan State and Iowa did, they have a great chance at winning this game. What I mean by that is that the team needs to focus on shutting down the run, constantly bringing pressure on DRob, and forcing him to throw. The defense needs to attack and trust its defensive backs in single coverage because DRob is not a polished passer, most of his completions have come on plays where teams have played soft zones and the DBs were caught looking in the backfield. That is a nice way of saying that his wide receivers were always open by about 5 yards and it didn't matter where he was going to throw it.

On the offensive side of the ball, Penn State needs to be aggressive as well. I really liked how they came out against Minnesota last week, especially with a commitment to the passing game. They need to show Michigan some looks with Redd and Royster in the same backfield as well, create some mismatches, and get the playmakers the ball. If Penn State can do this, and continue to attack them in the air, this will turn into a shootout game in Penn State's favor. I know a lot of people think I sound crazy or that I'm drinking the Blue and White Kool-Aid in this one, but the biggest weakness on the field consists of Michigan's back seven. Their Linebackers are terrible in space, they have two defensive back starters that were walk ons that have no clue how to cover, and a defensive coordinator that last coached with a successful program over a decade ago. Once again, if they can expose this unit in space and put the ball in the hands of our playmakers (Redd, Royster, Kersey, Brown, Moye, etc.), Penn State will win this game, and look good doing it.

In the end, I see DRob making more mistakes under the bright lights at Beaver Stadium and Penn State's struggling offense having a great game against this terrible Michigan defense. Look for the Lions to also come out with some fire because there is nothing greater than a night game at Beaver Stadium. The bright lights under a starry sky, the chill of the breeze in Happy Valley, and the aura of nervousness/excitement all throughout the stadium. You can't write a script much better than that.

Penn State 38 -- 31 Michigan

WE ARE........................